As Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada embarks on a crucial journey to China, he faces the formidable challenge of mending relations with Beijing while exploring fresh economic avenues outside of the United States. This mission is particularly daunting as Canada must navigate the delicate balance between diversifying its trade relationships and maintaining a harmonious connection with the Trump administration, all while adhering to its commitments regarding national security and human rights.
Given the current unpredictability surrounding Canada’s trade prospects with the US—its largest trade partner—Canada finds itself in a position where it must urgently work to repair strained diplomatic ties to safeguard its economic interests. Senior officials from Canada have characterized this upcoming trip, the first by a Canadian prime minister to China since 2017, as both "significant and historic," aligning with a bold initiative aimed at doubling non-US exports over the next ten years.
The agenda for this visit is packed and will include discussions on trade, agriculture, and international security, as outlined by Carney’s office. Furthermore, China's foreign ministry has emphasized the importance of the two nations recognizing their "shared interests" and striving to enhance people-to-people connections and cultural exchanges.
On Thursday, Carney is set to engage with Premier Li Qiang of China, as well as Zhao Leji, the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. Following these meetings, Carney will hold a one-on-one meeting with President Xi Jinping on Friday. This is significant, especially since their last interaction occurred during last year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea.
This official visit marks a pivotal moment in the thawing of relations between Canada and China, which reached a nadir in 2018 after the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver based on a US request for extradition on fraud charges linked to violations of Iran sanctions. Meng’s detention sparked outrage in Beijing, leading to the Chinese government’s apprehension of two Canadian citizens on espionage accusations. Fortunately, all three individuals were released in 2021 following a negotiated agreement featuring Meng and US prosecutors.
In recent times, China has faced allegations of interference in Canada’s political landscape, although a public inquiry revealed that its impact on recent federal elections was minimal. China continues to reject these claims of foreign interference. Historically, Canada and China have encountered difficulties in establishing substantial diplomatic ties.
The Canadian government currently perceives China as "an increasingly disruptive global power" that tends to overlook international regulations and norms. However, it also acknowledges that given China’s vast size and influence, some level of cooperation is unavoidable. Officials from Carney's administration have conveyed that they do not view this upcoming trip as a departure from this perspective but rather recognize that reducing economic dependence on the US necessitates an increase in trade with China.
In his discussions, Carney is expected to focus on fostering collaboration in key areas such as energy and climate while also setting clear boundaries around contentious issues like defense and critical minerals. Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat, shared with the BBC that this approach reflects a realistic understanding of the relationship that has been lacking for decades. He expressed hope that if both nations can appreciate each other's positions and identify their respective red lines, it might lead to a healthier relationship moving forward.
Navigating this diplomatic landscape has proven to be a tricky endeavor. In anticipation of Carney’s visit, two Liberal MPs decided to shorten their sponsored trip to Taiwan, explaining to the Globe and Mail that, despite Canada’s unchanged stance on Taiwan, their early return was necessary to avoid any potential confusion regarding the country’s foreign policy, especially in light of Carney’s engagements in Beijing.
One of the primary objectives for this visit is to persuade China to lift the tariffs it imposed on Canadian canola, which have negatively impacted farmers in Canada's prairie provinces. Last year, China enacted these agricultural tariffs in what many perceive as retaliation against Canada for introducing levies on Chinese electric vehicles in 2024, similar to actions taken by the US.
An editorial published recently by the state-run Global Times highlighted the frustrations expressed by Canadian farmers and suggested that Canada may be paying a steep price for its unwavering adherence to US policies. China has signaled its desire for the elimination of tariffs on EVs.
For China, Canada represents a significant trading ally, with bilateral trade estimated at around $118 billion in 2024. Notably, if President Xi can secure a favorable agreement with Carney, it would enhance China’s leverage in a neighboring country that holds strategic importance for the US.
The Global Times op-ed urged Ottawa to chart a foreign policy course distinctly separate from that of the US and to embrace "strategic autonomy."
However, one of the major uncertainties surrounding this visit is how the US will respond to any agreements made between Canada and China. The Canadian economy has already suffered due to US-imposed tariffs, particularly within the steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors. Negotiations to alleviate these tariffs are currently stalled.
In the near future, Canada will also be engaged in critical discussions about renewing a long-standing North American free trade agreement with the US and Mexico, which has provided protection against many of Trump’s extensive tariffs. This review process is anticipated to conclude later this year.
Robertson remarked that it is likely the Americans are monitoring the dynamics of Canada-China relations very closely, and he speculated that Canada is keeping the US sufficiently informed about its plans and intentions. Nonetheless, he emphasized, "Ultimately, we are pursuing Canadian interests."
With contributions from Jessica Murphy in Toronto.
